Hello and welcome to another edition of the CBB.
Vaccine update:
The Guardian reports today that 3 vaccines are in Phase III trials (Sinovac, University of Melbourne/MCRI, and Oxford/AstraZeneca), with an additional 11 in Phase II and 19 more in Phase I. (Moderna is set to start Phase III trials July 27.)
What is the timeline? According to the NIH’s Francis Collins (Anthony Fauci’s boss), there is “cautious optimism” that a vaccine could be available by the end of the year, according to TIME. “The Phase I data…looks really encouraging that these are vaccines that generate strong antibody responses,” Collins said.
Speed bumps: Medically, those most at risk for contracting COVID-19 are likely to be those who a vaccine will be hardest to protect. Politically, intelligence agencies perceive threats from countries such as Russia stealing sensitive biotech data.
National Geographic: “Up until very recently most of the focus of the vaccine community has been on saving lives of young children,” says Martin Friede, the World Health Organization’s coordinator for vaccine product and delivery research. “The people who need the vaccine the most may actually be the people in whom the vaccine might not work.”
WIRED: “The UK, US, and Canada have discovered hackers working on behalf of the Russian state launching attacks against coronavirus vaccine-development projects. Criminals working for the hacking group known as Cozy Bear have been caught attacking pharmaceutical businesses and academic institutions involved in vaccine development.”
Distribution: China has been approving domestically-produced vaccines for “emergency use,” testing vaccines that have not been approved by regulatory bodies on its military and employees of state-owned-companies (NYT).
At the same time, China is seen as the leader in the international vaccine development race. Some even say that China is aiming through these efforts to become the world’s leading biotech hub (Bloomberg, Reuters, Asia Times).
But, as national security expert James Carafano notes, competition can be a double-edged sword. “‘If being first is the goal, and then you cheat and lie and steal and cut corners and don’t tell the truth, that actually undermines your competitiveness.’ International trust in Chinese vaccines has already eroded significantly since 2018, when a Chinese company was found to be making vaccines with expired products.” (Politico)
This underscores how the race for a vaccine has become a point of national pride for whichever country successfully produces it. Although Europe and China have shown willingness to share resources, the US, India, and Russia have not joined a WHO initiative to promote collaboration in the development and distribution of coronavirus vaccines and treatments.
Domestically, the US government has implemented more restrictions on US-China medical collaboration, even as scientists continue to do so informally.
Parting shot: last month Yuan Peng, the head of China’s prominent CCP-affiliated think tank CICIR, published an article comparing the COVID-19 pandemic to a world war, and wrote that the existing international order is unsustainable (“国际秩序难以为继”). He goes on to write that the relationship between China and the world has passed the stage of integration and is moving into one where China can constructively read. Read more here (in Chinese).