After the previous edition of the CBB laid out some facts and figures on China’s vaccine rollout, I thought it would be appropriate to look at how China’s timeline compares to that of the US over the next year.
First, to examine the US timeline. Important figures to remember are the US population of 330 million people, the needed vaccination rate of 70-90%, and thus the rough herd immunity threshold of 264 million, or 80 percent.
Q4 2020: Americans received just over 3 million initial doses of the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccines by the end of 2020, far below the White House’s goal of administering 20 million doses by the end of 2020, in part due to delays of administering the 14 million vaccine doses that were administered to states. (Axios, Bloomberg, CDC, NY Times)
Q1 2021: Authorized vaccines were injected into 3 priority groups: healthcare workers, frontline workers, and elderly Americans. Roughly 30 percent of eligible Americans, or about 100 million, had received at least one dose of the vaccine by the end of Q1 March 31. Over 30 million had been infected with the virus. (Business Insider, NY Times)
Q2 2021: Joe Biden, who previously promised to use the Defense Production Act to administer 100 million vaccine shots by May 1, has since said he hopes for 200 million doses to be administered and all eligibility restrictions lifted by his 100th day, a goal that the nation is already on pace to meet (about 167 million doses had been given as of April 4). The US needs roughly 500M vaccine doses to reach herd immunity among adults. (Axios, NY Times, USA Today)
Q3 2021: Joe Biden has soft-pedaled a July 4 “Independence Day” from the virus, by which time herd immunity is on pace to be met, barring any unforeseen issues. (White House, USA Today)
Q4 2021: If COVID-19 variants turn out to be a minor factor (they only reduce vaccine efficacy modestly, or they don’t spread widely), then herd immunity is more likely in the third quarter than the fourth. However, if the impact of these variants is significant, we could see timelines significantly prolonging into late 2021 or beyond. (McKinsey)
Next, what about China?
Q4 2020: China approves its first COVID-19 vaccine for the general public. Developed by Sinopharm, interim data shows it has a 79% efficacy rate, slightly lower than US-developed vaccines by Pfizer and Moderna. (Caixin, BBC)
Q1 2021: China administered about 53 million vaccines to its citizens by February 28, barely meeting its goal to vaccinate 50 million by mid-February. This number, however, only covers around 3.6% of China’s 1.3 billion citizens. China also approved 3 more vaccines, from Sinovac, CanSino Biologics, and by Sinopharm’s affiliate Wuhan Institute of Biological Product. Only about 61% of the Chinese public said they wanted to get the shots, lagging behind the UK and Denmark, which saw 73% and 70% of their population saying yes to the idea, respectively. However, with life in cities like Wuhan having largely returned to normal, there is not a similar sense of urgency yet in China. (Quartz, NY Times, Caixin, NPR)
Q2 2021: Having upped its vaccination doses to 100 million by the end of March, China has set a target of covering about 40 percent of the population (or 520 million) by June, “which means that the daily inoculation number will have to increase to about 10 million doses. Data shows that China is now just 30 million doses behind the US, ranking second in the world in terms of vaccines administered. As of press time, the US had administered a total of 130 million doses.” In April, Sinovac announced a manufacturing capacity of 2 billion doses per year, but it did not say when it will actually produce the amount. (Global Times, Politico)
Q3 2021: China aims to vaccinate 40% of its population by June, but even at the rate of vaccinating 10 million people a day, experts said it would take roughly seven months to get to herd immunity and vaccinate 70% of its population. China has indicated that it will streamline entry into the country for those who have received Chinese vaccines, but that it will mutually recognize other countries’ vaccines. (Caixin, Bloomberg, Associated Press).
Q3 2022: Quartz: “Gao Fu, director of China’s health authority, said last week [in the Global Times] that 70% to 80% of the Chinese population needs to be inoculated for it to have herd immunity, estimating this could be achieved by the middle or the end of 2022. That’s a key deadline for China—when Beijing will host the Winter Olympics, another occasion to showcase its soft power just as it did with the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics.”
BONUS: map of countries that China has conducted trials for, promised access to vaccines to, or provided vaccines to, countries the US has provided vaccines to, and countries that both have helped.
Map Sources: CGTN, Nikkei Asia, Yahoo News, VOA, Gavi